Best Bets – Wild Card Edition

Welcome to my first best bets post of the playoffs. I will be going over the Wild Card round as well as my picks for the World Series. Still stinging a bit from that rough luck final 8 seconds of the Skins/Chiefs game that cost me both the spread and total on a meaningless play. So I’ll keep it short and sweet.

Lines are from 5Dimes (Best site for baseball betting in my opinion).

Tonight 10/3
MIN +240 @ NYY -250
Total 7.5

Yankees line has steadily marched up to -266 on some books and backed by a lot of public action. Looks to be leveling off so it’s time to take the Twins if you like them but I don’t see much value either way here. Gun to my head I take the +240 team in one game with aces on the mound but I’m staying away from the money line and betting on under 7.5 runs instead. Most, if not all, of the reason Yankees are so highly favored is because of the combo of Severino and those arms in the pen. Bet: Under 7.5



Tomorrow 10/4
COL +161 @ ARI -168
Total 8.5

Greinke has been a dominant force all season and gets a Colorado team that isn’t the same offense on the road (0.862 OPS at Home vs 0.703 OPS on the road). Also like the under for the same reason and Gray is a pretty good pitcher in his own right. Bet: ARI -168, Under 8.5
Edit 10/4 6:30pm: Looks like some sharp action on Rockies today. Would avoid ARI.

Futures
When trying to find some value in the NL, AL, or World series I first start by eliminating teams I think are overrated and see whats left.

(Odds as of 5pm 10/3)

Starting from the top I don’t like Astros/Cubs due to rotation and Rockies because of their offense on the road playing every series without home field.

NL
Dodgers aren’t 3x better then Washington. Washington matches up pretty well at every position except manager and bullpen (I fucking hate Dusty as a Red’s fan). With pretty nice odds for a team 4th in OPS and 3rd in SP WAR the Nationals appear to be a great bet. From the NL I also like Arizona at +1800; nice hitting, nice starting pitching, and if they never let Rodney pitch again would have a pretty decent back end of the pen.

AL
As for AL I dislike every team not named Cleveland. Cleveland has put together the best team this season and is going into the playoffs with swagger. Yankees have too many holes in their rotation and lineup to be a threat. You can say the same thing about the Twins to an even stronger degree but at their price not a bad small flyer considering the relative weakness of the AL and only needing to get lucky in a 5 game series to get past the Indians if they win the Wild Card. I also like the odds on the Sox at +800, lots of strong arms on that team.

Best Bet: Washington +800
Other Bets: CLE +325, BOS +850, ARI +1800

If I were breaking down my action it would be something like 2 units on CLE, 1 unit Washington, .5 each on Boston and ARI and maybe .1 on Minnesota.

 

Thanks for reading and feel free to chime in your opinions at the bottom of the page.