LMRTFY – April 12th

Welcome to Let Me Read That For You – April 12th Edition

Well the Reddit Fantasy Baseball mods finally came down on me for self posting my blog too much. So far these LMRTFY posts haven’t been nearly as popular as my strategy posts, buy/sell, or even the waiver wire post that got nuked. So I’m just going to post those “bigger” articles on the fantasy baseball subreddit and link these to my subreddit so everyone that came from Reddit can subscribe.

Now that we have 10 days into the season (out of ~180) we can finally start coming to some conclusions right?

(Yes, Yes he does)

This year has been a struggle for closer’s out of the gate. As fantasy players we try not to overreact but the Phillies have already made a change in the 9th and Texas will likely follow soon. I’ll have my closer rankings up later today to try and help you all sort this out.

For this post we will find some early overreactions by other writers and I’ll tell you why they are right or wrong.


News and Notes

Might as well lead with Sam Dyson since he blew another save. I’m facing him and changed my team name to “NothinSucksLikeDyson”. Only had 20 characters but I’m a fan. Matt Bush is the guy you want to own and you want to win the job if you’re a Rangers fan. If he’s owned you can always speculate on Jeremy Jeffress because there is a small chance he gets the nod. Dyson did well for the Rangers last year so his leash could go one more game, but he probably hangs himself with it. He’s been due for some regression for years and survived in the 9th last year with a K rate of 7.04. Of the top 30 in saves last year with at least 50 IP that’s behind only Jeanmar Gomez, Ryan Madson, Jeremy Jefress, Ryan Kintzler and Tony Cingrani. Only Kintzler is still saving games and I’m not sure how long he will hold up either.

While I have that list out I’ll mention Fransisco Rodriguez, Tony Watson, and Mark Melancon are the next three lowest. I think both Watson and K-Rod have seen better days and would be looking to bail. Melancon has had a rough start but I like him rest of season.

10 Day DL is pissing me off. If your league only has 1 DL spot it’s time to vote on adding another ASAP before some heads explode. I know the quick DL is great for keeping guys healthy but it’s starting to feel like a personal attack on my team.

Adrian Beltre had a setback and is out indefinitely with a grade 1 calf strain, at least 2 more weeks. Which is good news if you own Joey Gallo since his value will likely drop below ownable with Beltre back. Gallo has some nice pop if you’re in a deeper league, I’m waiting on him to get hot before I snag in a 12 teamer.

Matt Harvey left the start last night with a tight hammy. Thankfully not an arm or shoulder problem. Game was a blow out so perhaps just precautionary this early in the season. Either way we should know more later today and seems like worst case scenario they pop him on the DL10 like we keep seeing and he misses 1 start.

Buster Posey hit the 7 day DL. My waiver wire post yesterday would suggest Matt Wieters > Sandy Leon if they are still available.

Jean Segura did hit the 10 day DL. I snagged Yangervis Solarte in one league to replace him and also consider Chris Owings.

Joey Votto is really good. Like silly good. He loves to play around with strategies and do weird things sometimes. I don’t fully understand the guy but I know I want him. If he keeps goofing off it may present a nice buy window like last year.

Matt Kemp also joined the 10 day DL. If you drafted him you had to expect a few of these but it’s unfortunate it happened so soon during a hot start. There are some nice bats on most OF waiver wires right now.Someone like Corey Dickerson who is only 37% owned but looks pretty good would be a nice fill in.

James Paxton looks really good, like finally turned the corner good. I wouldn’t trade him unless an offer blew me away.

I’d drop Buxton for about half the guys on my waiver wire post. Unfortunately my league is too deep and those guys are all owned. I’ve lost the faith and am running out of bench spots with the DL raining on me. This article from Fangraphs would give me some hope for the future but comparisons to Jeff Francoeur’s 2006 aren’t encouraging for this year.

I’m just gonna quote myself from last week with this Rotoballer prospect ranking.

My Take: He could have stopped after 2 because Yoan Moncada (1. ETA Early June) is the only sure fire impact player and Tom Murphy (2. ETA Early May) is a great stash to eventually take over for whatever dumpster fire in your C spot. Meadows/Zimmer/Bellinger are all talented future big leaguers. If you don’t have a prospect spot there is no clear path to playing time in the majors for them and won’t be up till June-July anyway. Still worth keeping an eye on in case of injury/trade in front of them.

Important changes: Murphy scheduled in mid May now. Dan Vogelbach got moved up to 4th in the rankings and could be the first big prospect up. Keep an eye on the situation if you’re prospecting.

Scott Pianowski asks if Michael Pineda is unlucky?

My Take: Not unlucky, just not great. Scott mentions that Pineda’s HR/FB ratio being well over league average for 2 years in a row. That’s not luck that’s being prone to missing your spot and being forced to pay. Pineda has a great arm and if he finally turns a corner he can take a step to the next level. It’s early but it doesn’t appear it’s happening this season.

Rich Hill gets all of those blisters because he puts so much spin on the ball. So the question is do you like less innings of great pitching or want more innings of mediocrity? Personally I can find mediocrity all over the waiver wire so I’ll just be happy if Hill gets to 100IP.

If you like overreactions and auto playing video CBS Sports has the Top 15 Surprises of Week 1 for you!

My Take: First off, those guys get paid way too much for this article to come out on a Wednesday. Secondly; Zimmerman/Graveman/Holland/Devenski/E-Santana good, Delino who, spring stats didn’t matter (duh Liriano/Tanaka would attest) and we should stop sleeping on Holliday/Souza.


Streamers

Someone suggested I do streamers for today and tomorrow so I’m going to get a weekly list together and make it a separate post on Sunday.

Ivan Nova: 68% Owned. Had a nice first start and gets Reds at home. Big favorite today.

Shelby Miller: 10% Owned. Mentioned him in a post recently (they’re all recent) and he’s on the road at SF which is a nice park and middling offense. He should at least get some strikeouts unless it’s a really short outing.

Don’t Stream Blake Snell. Sexy name with shiny prospect coat but hasn’t found the strike zone consistently yet and that could really hurt in Yankee Stadium.


Best Bets

BAL +118

ARI -101

NYY -109


Weekly Schedule

Today – Closer Rankings

Tomorrow – Starting Pitcher Rankings

Friday – Positional Rankings

 

Thanks for Reading
-Kevin